U.S. Defense Secretary was sure that the measure will pass and the strategy is a combination of diplomacy and pressure to persuade the Iranians that they will undermine their own security by pursuit of nuclear weapons, not enhance it.
The sanction list includes 41 persons and 22 companies or organizations involved in nuclear or ballistic missile activities and three entities linked to IRSL (Iran shipping line company) This will make t a total of 75 entities if the old entities are added.
Turkey and Brazil called for an open "Political debate" on the broader Iranian nuclear issue first. But neither one of them is a veto-holding permanent member of the council.
USA, France and Britain won a crucial support of from Russia and China, but they still have tough campaign to win support from the rest of the Security Council, although US Ambassador Susan Rice was confident that the resolution would be adopted by a strong majority.
Only Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon — three non-permanent council members — have openly voiced opposition to the text and it remains unclear whether they will vote against or abstain.
In a calculated jest to ensure a full support to the resolution, the USA moved on two fronts:
Last week the United States backed a Security Council statement on Israel's commando raid on an aid flotilla that tried to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip. Nine people on one of the ships were killed in the action.
Washington backed a call for a 2012 meeting of all countries in the Middle East to discuss making the region a zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction -- a plan originally proposed by Egypt with Arab backing to add pressure on Israel to give up its nuclear weapons.
But there are still doubts that the resolution if passed would pass with minor majority. Why?
The votes be will be secured by:
USA, Great Britain, France, Russia, China, Japan, Austria, Bosnia, Mexico
Members opposed: Turkey, Brazil
Members abstain: Lebanon
Members not clear: Gabon, Nigeria, Uganda
What is the catch?
The proposal includes:
* Prohibiting Iran from buying several categories of heavy weapons including attack helicopters and missiles
* Urging all states to inspect cargo suspected of containing banned items to and from Iran in their territory, including seaports and airports
* Calling on countries to block financial transactions and ban the licensing of Iranian banks if they suspect a link to nuclear activities
* Increasing the number of individuals - reportedly including senior nuclear officials - and companies targeted with asset freezes and travel bans
It is tough on Iran.... and the supplying countries as well....! so what would Iran do?
It seems not much.
Iran insists its nuclear program is purely peaceful and is still trying to convince Russia to veto the sanctions,
Iranians' next move not yet predictable - it is still between extensive diplomacy and shy threats of confrontation.
How Russia was convinced?
At the 2006 G8 Summit in St. Petersburg, the U.S. and Russia announced the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism to keep terrorists from acquiring nuclear materials.
On North Korea, Russia is a participant in the Six-Party Talks aimed at the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Russia also takes part in the Middle East Peace Process "Quartet" (along with the UN and the EU).
Russia now interacts with NATO members as an equal through the NATO-Russia Council but without veto power over NATO decisions.
The Obama administration has developed many ways to improve bilateral relations and enhance cooperation by focusing on areas of mutual interest, while managing areas of disagreement.
Recently, USA and Russia signed a historic new treaty that would drastically slash the nations’ nuclear arsenals.
How China was convinced?
According to New York Times, Israeli officials have been waging their own quiet campaign to convince the Chinese that Iran should be punished for its renegade nuclear program.
Contrary to USA efforts, Israel was making their case without diplomatic niceties.
In their visit of Last February to China, Israeli officials unveiled the ostensible purpose of their visit: to explain in sobering detail the economic impact to China from an Israeli strike on Iran — an attack Israel has suggested is all but inevitable should the international community fail to stop Iran from assembling a nuclear weapon.
Whether the Israeli show-and-tell persuaded Beijing to join the proposed sanctions announced by the White House late last month may never be known. But the episode demonstrates how Israel — a small country with limited influence on China — has found ways to engage an emerging superpower whose geopolitical heft is increasingly vital to the Jewish state.
Well this is the other face of diplomacy.
Iran certainly tried it when they threatened to close the Straight of Hormuz, and when the Iranian President confronted the Russian President for allying with USA, but it seems they did not know how to play this game.
The question is:
Will these sanctions be strong enough to restrain Iran.... and Israel
Or would they be the cause of unleashing a war between two minority ethnic powers in the region, with both having the same devastating tools and wills?
Sami Cherkaoui
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