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Friday, July 23, 2010

Mr. And Mrs. Ok


Some people have the tendency to believe or say yes or Ok to anything they read or hear, whether or not it is true.

These people are Mr. and Mrs. Ok.
They Okay whatever is told to them whether they mean this Okay or not.
They just Okay.

This is the Ok bias...
Me and myself: What you see is what you get (S...
There is also what is called "Wishful Thinking", which is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality or reality.
Explosion of positive energy
This may lead to "Positive Outcome Bias", where people simply overestimate the likelihood of good things happening rather than the bad things.

If the "Real Outcome" is bad, then the people with "Positive Outcome Bias" relate this bad outcome to situational factors beyond their control.
Mirrored self portrait in serving tray
This "self Serving Bias", can be seen in the common human tendency to take credit for success but to deny responsibility for failure.

It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way that is beneficial to their interests.

When people form false associations between membership in a statistical minority group and rare (typically negative) behaviors, this would be a common example of illusory correlation.
It is the phenomenon of seeing the relationship one expects in a set of data even when no such relationship exists.

When a disagreement becomes more extreme as the different parties consider evidence on the issue, it is called Attitude Polarization.
It is one of the effects of confirmation bias, which is the tendency of people to search for and interpret evidence selectively, to reinforce their current beliefs or attitudes. 
When people encounter ambiguous evidence, this bias can potentially result in each of them interpreting it as in support of their existing attitudes, widening rather than narrowing the disagreement between them.
The effect is observed with issues that activate emotions, such as political "hot button" issues.

Over Confidence Effect is when the subjective confidence in one person is greater than the objective accuracy.

You can find this effect in people who rate their answers as 99% certain, but are wrong 30% of the time.
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Hence they can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military, political and social contexts.

Back to the top, don't you agree with me that despite all the weaknesses, discrepancies and variances, Mr. and Mrs. Ok are still the best?

Sami Cherkaoui
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