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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Sanctions on Iran done, what next?

Security Council Resolution 1929, is adopted  by 12 votes to two against (Brazil -Turkey) and one abstained (Lebanon).
Brazil and Turkey criticized the sanctions saying they could undermine further diplomatic efforts.

In the preamble of the resolution, the Council reaffirmed its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, its provisions therein and obligations on parties to the Treaty.

The Council recognized that access to diverse, reliable energy was critical for sustainable growth and development, and emphasized the rights of states in international trade.
It called upon Iran to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and was determined to take appropriate measures to make Iran comply with provisions in previous Security Council resolutions and requirements of the IAEA.

Further provisions of the resolution included:

    * Iran could not participate in any activities related to ballistic missiles.
    * A ban on all countries providing military vehicles, aircraft or warships and missiles or missile systems and related materiel to Iran;
    * A ban on training, financing or assistance related to such arms and materiel and restraint over the sale of other arms and material to Iran;
    * A travel ban on individuals listed in the annexes of the resolution, with exceptions decided by the Committee established in Resolution 1737;
    * The freezing of funds and assets of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

All states were furthermore recommended to undertake the following:

    * Inspect all cargo to and from Iran in accordance with the Convention on the Law of the Sea and civil aviation agreements for prohibited items and report within five days explanations for the search and the findings from such inspections;
    * The seizure and disposal of prohibited items;
    * Prevent the provision of fuel, supplies and servicing of Iranian vessels if they are involved in prohibited activities;
    * Provide information to the Committee concerning attempts to evade the sanctions by Iran Air or Iran Shipping Lines to other companies;
    * Prevent the provision of financial services that may be used for sensitive nuclear activities;
    * Exercise vigilance when dealing with Iranian individuals or entities if such business could contribute to Iran's sensitive nuclear activities;
    * Prohibit the opening of Iranian banks in their territory and prevent Iranian banks from entering into relationships with banks in their jurisdiction if there is reason to suspect the activities could contribute to sensitive proliferation activities in Iran;
    * Prevent financial institutions operating in their territories from opening offices and accounts in Iran if they would contribute to Iran's proliferation sensitive activities.

Throughout the imposition of the aforementioned measures, exceptions were made for humanitarian purposes and legal economic activities.

All states were to report to the Committee within 60 days on the measures they had taken to implement the provisions of the current resolution.

China's UN ambassador Zhang Yesui said the sanctions were trying to prevent nuclear proliferation and would not hurt "the normal life of the Iranian people".

Turkey and Brazil spoke out in opposition.
They insisted Iran had made concessions in a recent nuclear fuel exchange agreement they brokered, which they see as a pathway to negotiations.

President Obama said the new sanctions sent an "unmistakable message"
The Brazilian ambassador to the UN, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti said that the sanctions will most probably lead to the suffering of the people of Iran and will play into the hands of people on all sides who do not want dialogue to prevail.

The two "no" votes were the strongest opposition yet in four rounds of sanctions, weakening the international unity the Americans have tried to build to isolate Iran.

The BBC 's world affairs correspondent, says this fourth round of sanctions is unlikely to have any more effect on Iranian policy than the first three. Iran's vital economic interests have not been targeted and Tehran has already developed systems of evasion, he says.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadenejad, on an official visit in Tajikistan, dismissed the new resolution.


Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, warned that "choosing the option of confrontation will bring Iran's resolute response".

Iran's U.N. Ambassador Mohammad Khazaee accused the United States, Britain and their allies of abusing the Security Council to attack Iran. He confirmed taht no amount of pressure and mischief will be able to break Iran's determination to pursue and defend its legal and inalienable rights. Khazaee further emphasised that Iran "is one of the most powerful and stable countries in the region and never bowed - and will never bow - to the hostile actions and pressures by these few powers and will  continue to defend its rights."

In Moscow, the Itar-Tass news agency reported that Ahmadinejad will not take part in the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan beginning Thursday.

Iran holds more leverage over China, which needs Iran's oil and gas to feed its growing energy appetite, than it does over Russia, which has long provided important technology to Iran including building the country's first nuclear reactor. The facility is expected to begin electricity production this summer.

Iran will not halt its contested uranium enrichment activities in spite of the new UN sanctions, Tehran's envoy to the UN atomic watchdog responded.

Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told state-owned Al-Alam Television that "the move towards the resolution was an incorrect step. It was neither constructive nor efficient in solving the issue. We think it will complicate the situation more."

The views of analysts almost met that Tehran will pass the shock quickly through intensifying the policy of self-sufficiency and resort to the so-called trade-Bypass and the black market or so-called "plan Fox "for their requirements of modernizing their military and technological.

The new sanctions should bring little direct political fallout for Ahmadinejad. The country has been deeply polarized since last June's disputed presidential election - which the opposition claims was rigged by vote fraud - and Ahmadinejad's backers are likely to use the sanctions as a rallying cry.

The British "Times"  wrote that Iran was exerting "deceptive tricks" to protect its international trade, which reduces the the impact of new international sanctions.

The newspaper added that the Iranian shipping companies, Which have links to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and are mentioned by name in the list of sanctions, already have plans to change the names of the vessels from Farsi to English names, and The U.S. Treasury Department admitted that it was unable to adjust these processes, which raises  fears that the new sanctions will be less effective than ever.

Turkey and Brazil opposition of the new sanctions is the strongest opposition so far, and expected to weaken the Sanctions morally and in some ways practically.

Turkey is expected to play a major role in minimizing the effects.
Turkey has neen condemning the double standards that focus on the Iranian nuclear issue and ignore the Israeli arsenal Nuclear weapons.

The rush to the imposition of sanctions, supports Iran's chances to absorb the shock quickly.
It is well known that once an agreement to swap enrichment has been reached, between Turkey, Brazil and Iran in Tehran in mid-May, Washington and the major powers hurried to introduce a draft resolution on new sanctions, which Russia and China have agreed on.
This was interpreted by Turkey, Brazil and the world Developing countries as a message that the major countries will not allow developing countries to have a role in solving global issues and thus influence the prestige of Washington, Moscow, London and Beijing.

To this, Turkey and Iran considered that the new sanctions on Iran is a message to them as it is to Iran, a matter which Tehran would defenitely promote to its advantage.

It is expected that Brazil will enhance its economic and trade ties with Iran, and Turkey will do the same, especially after its damaging relations with Israel, and its starined relations with Washington due to the backdrop of the "Armenian genocide",  the non-condemnation of Israel for the massacered fleet of freedom and USA's attitdude towards the Uranium Exchange Deal which Turkey and Iran reached with the assistance of Brazil.

I have mentioned in yesterdays; Blog that USA had made prior arrangements with Russia and China to win their support and votes.

Today some American and European Media, uncovered few secret deals the US has struck with both countries, such as:

The U.S. to end sanctions on a Russian government agency to export arms and three other Russian agencies which have transfered some sensetive techmology or weapons to Iran.

The US Administration also agreed not to impose any ban on a Russian deal to sell anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran.

It is also secretly agreed that the sanctions will not prevent Moscow to sell anti-craft missiles "S -300" to Iran, a deal Russia has fabricated several excuses to delay under strong U.S. pressure, but not abolish.
This deal can help Iran defense system to fend any U.S. and/or  Israeli air strike attempts to destroy its nuclear facilities.

As for China, some lights were shed on a secret deal that China made with Obama administration, not only to allow China to promote its economic ties with Iran, but also exceeded to exempt Chinese companies of any unilateral sanctions on Iran trade partners who belong to other countries.

Although the above justifies the decline in Russia and China support of Iran , and the Russian's anger to Iran's rejection of its proposal to enrich uranium on its territory, which could bring great benefits to the Russian ecoonomy, there are talks that Moscow will play in the end an important role to alleviate the new sanctions on Iran, a role that China will play as well. Especially that Iran is a very important exporter of oil to China, and in turn China is a very essential trade partner to Iran. Notwithstanding the military cope between the two countries especially in the Missile industry.

Maybe this is why the Iranian President mockingly said: "From right and from left, they adopt sanctions, but for us they are annoying flies, like a used tissue," .

So why was all this?
and what is next?

Sami Cherkaoui

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